European airlines’ summer fuel bill could hit $8bn due to Middle East airspace closures

A new analysis from aviation fuel management firm i6 Group warns that European airlines could face 5.6billionto5.6billionto8.4 billion in extra fuel costs over the four peak summer months due to ongoing Middle East airspace closures. Since late February 2026, flights between Europe and Asia or East Africa have been forced to take longer detours, adding roughly $131 million per month in fuel costs within i6’s own network alone. The report, Middle East Conflict: Summer 2026 Outlook, is based on real‑time fuelling data from nearly 300 airports.

The disruptions have also led to significant changes in fuel storage behavior. At 61 European airports, average fuel book stocks jumped 62.2% in April 2026 compared to last year, with supply exceeding demand by 17%—nearly triple the surplus from April 2025. i6 attributes the buildup to precautionary stockpiling by fuel operators concerned about potential future supply disruptions, particularly those linked to the Strait of Hormuz.

Environmentally, rerouted flights are generating an additional 415,373 tonnes of CO₂ per month within the i6 network, equivalent to nearly 6,000 London–New York return flights. Industry‑wide, monthly rerouting emissions are estimated between 4.2 million and 6.2 million tonnes of CO₂, adding pressure on airlines already committed to sustainability targets. “Real‑time fuel data is now critical infrastructure for the industry,” said i6 CEO Alex Mattos.